ARPDAU curves, conversion funnels, and financial forecasts
Conservative revenue projections based on industry benchmarks and Gridfall's retention-first monetization strategy. Our target is sustainable growth with higher retention than aggressive competitors.
350K
Daily Active Users
$0.25
ARPDAU
$2.6M
Monthly Revenue
28.0K
Paying Users
8%
Conversion Rate
Early Game (M1-6)
$0.08 → $0.18
First-time buyer bonuses, starter packs, VIP 1-5 progression
Growth Phase (M6-18)
$0.18 → $0.32
Event spending, subscription uptake, whale development
Maturity (M18-36)
$0.32 → $0.45
Mega whale concentration, cross-server competition, prestige spending
| Segment | % of Revenue | % of Players | Avg Lifetime Spend | Avg Monthly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Payers | 0% | 89% | $0 | $0 |
| Minnows (VIP 1-5) | 15% | 7% | $1,500 | $15/mo |
| Dolphins (VIP 6-10) | 25% | 2.5% | $12,500 | $150/mo |
| Whales (VIP 11-17) | 35% | 1.2% | $100,000 | $1,500/mo |
| Mega Whales (VIP 18-20) | 25% | 0.3% | $400,000 | $8,000/mo |
Key Insight: The top 1.5% of players (Whales + Mega Whales) generate 60% of total revenue. This is consistent with industry benchmarks where the top 2% typically account for 50-70% of IAP revenue.
Time Acceleration (35%)
Primary revenue driver. Speed-ups for construction, research, training, and reconstitution.
Hero Gacha (25%)
Fragment-based hero acquisition with pity system. New hero releases drive spending spikes.
Subscriptions (15%)
Stable recurring revenue. Quantum Shield Pass, Phoenix Protocol, Architect's Blessing.
| Game | ARPDAU | D30 Retention | Genre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last War | $2.47 | 4% | 4X Strategy |
| WhiteOut Survival | $1.08 | 8% | 4X Strategy |
| Rise of Kingdoms | $0.85 | 6% | 4X Strategy |
| Gridfall (Target) | $1.50-2.00 | 10-12% | 4X Strategy |
Gridfall's Strategy: Target higher retention (10-12% D30) with moderate ARPDAU ($1.50-2.00). This creates a larger, more engaged player base that generates sustainable long-term revenue.
Aggressive Competitor Risk: Last War's $2.47 ARPDAU comes with 4% D30 retention. High extraction burns through players quickly, requiring constant UA spend to maintain revenue.
Conservative projections based on gradual monetization strategy with retention-first approach.
Year 1
$28M
Launch ramp-up, building player base, establishing economy
Year 2
$65M
Mature economy, whale development, cross-server features
Year 3
$97M
Peak maturity, prestige spending, sustainable plateau
$190M
Total projected revenue (Years 1-3)
$2.8B
4X Strategy market size (2024)
Gridfall target: ~3% market share by Year 3